Ukraine war: Five ways Russia’s invasion may play out

  • BFM
  • 23 days-ago

Wars ebb and flow. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is no exception.

Early fears of a swift conquest were succeeded by Russian retreat and Ukrainian resistance. That has now been met by a more focused Russian offensive in the east.

But 100 days on, where might this war go next?

Here are five potential scenarios – they are not mutually exclusive, but all are within the bounds of plausibility.

1: War of attrition

The war might continue for months – if not years – as Russian and Ukrainian forces grind each other down.

Momentum shifts to and fro as both sides make gains and losses. Neither side is willing to give up. Russia’s President Putin judges he can gain by demonstrating strategic patience, gambling that Western countries will suffer from “Ukraine fatigue” and focus more on their economic crises and the threat from China.

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